The war in Ukraine and the Russian quest to regain the strategic depth it lost when the Soviet Union collapsed

We offer hear the term “Strategic depth” when talking about Russia and Ukraine, but what does it really mean?

Strategic depth is a military term that refers the distance between the front lines or battles zone and the core areas of a nation like its centers of population.

Another key term is “defendable borders” which simply means a natural physical barrier that can defended with relative ease.  For instance, rivers, mountains, swamps, oceans, lakes and deserts can sometimes make good defendable borders.

Vladimir Putin once said that the loss of the Soviet Empire was one of the greatest geopolitical catastrophe in history. Ukraine which has a long intermingled relationship with Russia is of critical importance to the Russian.   When Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, it provided the Russian heartland with strategic depth. For Russia, the idea of Ukraine joining NATO was simply unacceptable and Russia has clearly shown that they were willing to go to war no matter the cost.

Ukraine is blessed with natural resources but lacks good defendable borders with the exception of the Mountainous areas in the Carpathians in Western Ukraine.

Let us now review some strategic depth scenarios in Ukraine from best to worse for the Russian.

The first and best scenario for Russia would have been for Ukraine to enter a strategic military alliance.  In this first scenario, Russia would gain strategic depth via a military alliance or a regime friendly to Russia like Belarus. 

According to Sun Tzu, “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting”. The Russian have clearly violated this critical rule of Sun Tzu and it is now costing and ruining the lives of many innocent people.

The second scenario involves splitting Ukraine in the West with Lviv as the capital of Free Ukraine.

In this second scenario, Russia would stop short of occupying the whole country and exclude the Western region which was historically one of the most hostile region for the Russian.  The Russian would still gain some strategic depth and have a defendable border at the Dnieper River to contain an invasion.  In the long run, Free Ukraine would be greatly impoverished for losing its agricultural heartland and the coastline.  Countries that are landlocked are at significant economic disadvantage because maritime shipping is the cheapest form of transportation.

The third scenario involves splitting Ukraine at the Dnieper River and capturing the Southwestern coastline with Odessa the Jewell of the Black Sea.

In this third scenario, the Russian would have a defendable border at the Dnieper River and deprive Free Ukraine of its coastline.  In the long run, the loss of the coastline to the Russian would be economically devastating.

The fourth scenario involves splitting Ukraine at the Dnieper River

The fourth scenario with the defendable border at the Dnieper River and the control of the North Crimea Canal is an acceptable scenario for Russia. The remaining Free Ukraine would still be a viable country but obviously very hostile to Russia.  Of course, the Ukrainian are not interested in ceding any territories and they have shown the World that they will fight to the bitter end.

The Situation on the ground vs Strategic depth

Courtesy of the United Kingdom Defense Intelligence here is a map depicting the situation as of April 9, 2022

When we look at the April 9th, 2022 map published by Defense Intelligence, we see that the Russian forces have retreated and been expelled by the Ukrainian forces.  One would have to be a very good Kremlin propagandist to tell anyone with a straight face that the war in Ukraine is going as planned.  There is no question that the Ukrainian have the momentum, but I would be cautious about celebrating just yet.   The Russian have not given up and they still have some deadly cards to play. 

As the next phase of the war begins, we must pay attention close attention to the Mykolaiv/Kherson struggle which I made my first post on substack and the Donbas struggle in the East.

Courtesy of Al Jazeera  here is a map of Russian as native tongue in Ukraine.

Russian as native tongue map is worth paying attention to as it may have influence the Russian to focus on the parts of Ukraine that were historically more pro-Russian.

The Russian have failed at regime change and forced a Ukrainian surrender with the military aspect of the war.  However, the Russian are not just fighting and destroying Ukraine, they are also conducting economic warfare.  The Russian navy has essentially blockaded the entire Ukrainian coastline.  On the World stage, the chance of a global famine is growing by the day.  The sanctions placed on Russia where devastating but the World is also going to feel some ripple effects from those very same sanctions.

My best advice for the Ukrainian people is this:  “If you fight with all your might, there is a chance of life; where as death is certain if you cling to your corner” (Sun Tzu).