Rivers, Steppes, and Stalemate: How Ukraine’s Geography Shaped Russia’s War (2022–2025)
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely my own and do not reflect those of any public agency, employer, or affiliated organization. This blog aims to educate and empower readers through objective geographic and planning insights, fostering informed discussion on global and regional issues
In 2022, I wrote about how geography—especially concepts like strategic depth and defensible borders—would shape the war in Ukraine. Much has changed since then, and much remains unresolved. With the frontlines still active in 2025 and the conflict showing no clear path to peace, it is time to revisit those early insights. This is both a reflection on what I got right and a reminder that in war, geography sets the stage but cannot predict the script.
What Is Strategic Depth and Why Does It Matter?
Strategic depth refers to the buffer space between a nation's front lines and its vital population centers or industrial heartland. The more depth a country has, the more time it has to absorb shocks and respond to military threats. Related to this is the concept of defensible borders. These are natural features like rivers, mountains, or large bodies of water that make it harder for an enemy to advance.
For Russia, the collapse of the Soviet Union significantly reduced its strategic depth. Many of the former buffer states either joined NATO or moved toward Western alliances. Ukraine was the largest and most significant of these. From the Kremlin’s perspective, Ukraine’s westward tilt represented a serious strategic loss. President Vladimir Putin described the Soviet breakup as a major geopolitical catastrophe. The 2022 invasion was, in part, an attempt to regain that lost depth.
Ukraine’s Geography: Strength and Vulnerability
Ukraine has valuable resources and strategic infrastructure, but it also has geographic weaknesses. The Carpathian Mountains in the west offer some protection, but most of Ukraine is open steppe. This makes it harder to defend and easier to invade. Yet modern warfare has partially offset this vulnerability. Long-range drones and missiles now allow Ukraine to strike deep behind Russian lines, compressing the strategic depth geography once granted invaders
One of Ukraine’s most important geographic features is the Dnieper River. This river flows from north to south and cuts the country in half. It also serves as a major natural barrier with few reliable crossing points.
Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline is another strategic asset. The port cities of Mykolaiv and Odesa are essential to Ukraine’s economy and global trade. Despite naval blockades and missile strikes, Ukraine retains control of Odesa and Mykolaiv, aided by anti-ship missiles and grain corridor ingenuity.
Revisited: Four Russian Scenarios from 2022 Compared to 2025
In 2022, I outlined four strategic scenarios Russia might pursue. Now that we are in 2025, it is useful to assess them again.
Scenario 1: Ukraine aligns with Russia
This would have been Russia’s best-case outcome. A pro-Russian Ukrainian government would have restored strategic depth without war. That scenario was eliminated almost immediately. Russia’s failure to achieve this outcome through coercion or persuasion led to a protracted war, highlighting the risks of underestimating an adversary’s resolve—a lesson Sun Tzu warned against.
Scenario 2: Ukraine is split at Lviv
This scenario envisioned a divided Ukraine, with Lviv as the capital of a Western-aligned “Free Ukraine.” While Russian leaders like former President Medvedev still talk about this, Russian forces remain far from making it a reality. The lack of progress toward this scenario underscores how Ukraine’s geographic depth and international support have prevented a clean partition. Overall, there is no military progress toward this outcome.
Scenario 3: Russia captures the southern coastline
This scenario included seizing Odesa and cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea. Odesa still stands. While Russia made some gains along the coast, it did not achieve this objective. The Black Sea’s economic importance and Ukraine’s defense of Mykolaiv, supported by the Dnieper River’s natural barrier, have thwarted this objective. The failure to dominate the coastline, combined with Ukraine’s ability to maintain alternative trade routes, has prolonged the conflict, as neither side can fully control this critical geographic asset.
Scenario 4: Russia holds territory up to the Dnieper
This remains the most realistic scenario. By holding parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson east of the Dnieper, Russia maintains a defensive buffer. It also secures access to the North Crimea Canal, which is vital for providing water to Crimea. The Dnieper’s role as a dividing line reinforces the stalemate, as neither side can easily advance without overcoming significant geographic and military challenges.
The Kherson Front and the Geography of the Dnieper River
One of the more accurate geographic predictions from 2022 was that the Dnieper River would become a key dividing line. When Ukraine liberated the city of Kherson in November 2022, Russian forces retreated across the river to the east bank, destroying the Antonivskyi and Kakhovka bridges to sever crossing points. Since then, the river has served as a near-impenetrable natural front line, with only the partially standing Varvarivskyi Bridge near Mykolaiv remaining as a damaged but contested link.
With all major bridges destroyed or unusable and wide water crossings under fire, the Dnieper has constrained large-scale offensives in the south. Ukraine has launched raids across the river, even establishing temporary footholds, but no lasting advance has been sustained against Russian counterfire.
From a strategic standpoint, Ukraine’s control of Kherson and the western bank has helped protect Mykolaiv and Odesa. While denying Russia full canal access, Ukraine’s control has forced Moscow to rely on alternative water sources—leaving Crimea with persistent shortages. Geography, now reinforced by deliberate destruction of infrastructure, continues to shape both opportunities and limits for both sides.
The Fog of War: What Remains Unclear
Yet if geography sets the stage, human factors write the script. Morale, technology, and external aid have repeatedly defied terrain-based predictions. While geography provides structure, it cannot predict every outcome. The war in Ukraine has surprised analysts in many ways. Russia controls much of Luhansk and parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Ukraine has made tactical gains in the northeast and limited advances in the south. But neither side has achieved a decisive breakthrough.
What we are seeing is a war shaped by strategy, endurance, and shifting alliances—alongside physical geography. The Dnieper River, the flat plains, and the access to ports are all still important, but so is willpower, international aid, and domestic resolve.
Economic Warfare and Global Impacts
The war is not only about territory. Russia has also waged economic warfare—blockading ports, damaging infrastructure, and weaponizing energy. The collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2023 led to food shortages in parts of Africa and the Middle East. Since then, alternative export routes have eased some of the pressure, but food insecurity remains a concern.
On the other side, sanctions have hit Russia’s economy. In response, Russia has strengthened ties with countries like China, Iran, and others in the Global South. Ukraine, supported by the West, has received billions in aid and military assistance, but the costs continue to mount.
Looking Ahead
As of mid-2025, the war in Ukraine remains unresolved. The Dnieper River still serves as a key dividing line. Odesa remains vital for trade and economic survival. The flat terrain continues to influence how each side positions its forces. The geography of Ukraine is still shaping the direction of the war.
What has changed is how the world sees Ukraine. No longer seen as merely a buffer state, Ukraine’s resistance has made it a symbol of national self-determination in a conflict reshaping European security.
Final Thoughts: Geography Matters, But So Do People
As we reflect on maps and military strategies, it is important not to lose sight of the human toll. Millions of civilians have been displaced. Families have lost homes, jobs, and loved ones. Infrastructure has been destroyed, and communities remain in crisis.
If you want to help, I encourage you to support organizations providing humanitarian aid. Groups such as World Central Kitchen, Razom for Ukraine, and UNHCR are working directly with those affected by the war. Every donation helps bring food, medical care, and shelter to people who need it.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely my own and do not reflect the position of my employer.